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You must,
of course, consider your opponent when deciding
whether to bet a fair hand for value or to bluff.
Against a perpetual caller, obviously you should
rarely bluff. However, against such a player you
should bet any hand that you figure is a reasonable
favorite to be the best hand. In contrast, against
a tough player capable of tough folds, you can get
away with bluffs more often, but you should be more
reluctant to bet your fair hands for value. A tough
opponent is not likely to pay you off with his worse
hands, and when he does call, he's likely to show
down a hand that beats you.
Here is a typical situation showing when a bluff
is right and when it is not. Let's say in draw poker
you draw three cards to a pair of jacks, and your
opponent draws three to what you suspect is a pair
of aces. First, we'll assume your opponent is the
type of player who will almost always fold if his
hand doesn't improve. In this instance, your play
is to bluff if you don't improve since you may make
your opponent throw away his pair of aces. However,
if you make jacks up, you should check rather than
bet for value since you are a big underdog if you
bet and get called. If your opponent calls, he is
likely to have made aces up.
Now let's assume your opponent is the type who almost
never folds. Against this player you cannot bluff
with one pair because he will almost certainly call
you with his bigger pair.
However, if you make jacks up against him, then
you should bet for value since your two pair are
almost a 5-to-2 favorite to be the best hand when
you get called. The difference is that this opponent
will call with one pair of aces as well as with
aces up, whereas the first opponent would most likely
not have called with only a pair of aces.
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