Sometimes
both you and your opponent have been drawing to
a flush or a straight. You don't make your hand,
but there's a good chance your opponent didn't make
his either. Because of earlier bets on the come,
there may be a fair amount in the pot - say, $100
in a $10-$20 games. Now let's say you are first,
and you end up with an AJ high. You think there's
a 55 percent chance your opponent made a legitimate
hand, and there's a 15 percent chance he has you
beat "by mistake" with something like
an A,K or an A,Q high. In this spot you should bet
because by betting you are likely to make your opponent
throw away the A,K and A,Q high, thus improving
your chances of winning from 30 percent to 45 percent.
In contrast, when you have a busted hand and you
suspect your opponent does, too, you may not want
to bluff if you end up making something like a small
pair. If you bet, your opponent will call with a
legitimate hand, and he will fold without one. But
if you check and then call, your opponent may bet
his busted hands as well as his legitimate ones.
Thus, with your small pair you beat his bluffs,
which you could not do if you came out betting yourself.
Either way, of course, you lose to his legitimate
hands..
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