|
Your position can also
affect the chances of a bluff’s success. In
most games with tough players, I've found it easier
to bluff if I'm first than if I'm second and my
opponent has checked. There are two reasons for
this. If my opponent has checked to me, he knows
he has shown weakness with his check, and when I
bet, he suspects I am trying to take advantage of
his weakness. So he's likely to call with any kind
of hand. And, if he has a really bad hand, he might
very well have tried to bluff himself. Since he
checked instead, the chances are good he has a calling
hand, and when I bet out on a bluff, he's likely
to call, even if he thinks he's a small underdog.
So in situations on the end where your hand can't
win by checking but where you have reason to believe
your opponent may be weak, a bluff in first position
is more likely to succeed than a bluff in second
position.
A bluff is a bet or raise with a hand you do not
think is the best hand. With more cards to come,
you should generally restrict yourself to semi-bluffs
with hands that may become the best hand.
When deciding whether to make a pure bluff, you
estimate whether your chances of getting away with
it are better than the pot odds you are getting.
However, if there are more cards to come and you
plan to continue to bluff, you must take into account
your effective odds.
On the end you should usually bluff with a busted
hand when you think your opponent is weak. Against
a tough player, the bluff tends to work more often
in first position. However, if you have a hand with
some value, don't bet when you are first so that
you can snap off your opponent's bluffs. If you
are in second position and your opponent checks,
show down these same hands since they have little
chance of winning if you bet and get called.
The odds against a bluff s working increase almost
geometrically with each extra person in a pot. Therefore,
it is rarely correct to try to bluff out two or
more players, especially on the end.
When to bluff and when to bet a fair hand for value
is a difficult problem of judgment and experience.
In general, if you do not think you could get away
with a bluff, you should bet your fair hands for
value; if a fair hand cannot be a profitable bet,
then a bluff should be.
Bluffs are another tool of the well-rounded poker
player. In my opinion, they should show a long-run
profit the same as any other poker play. Even if
you get caught only occasionally, you can still
expect to get paid off when you do have a hand.
|