|
When there are more
cards to come, your bluffs should rarely be pure
bluffs - that is to say, bets or raises that have
little or no chance of winning if you are called,
even taking into account the cards you may get on
future rounds. Instead your early-round bets should
be semi-bluffs, those powerful, deceptive plays.
It is important to bluff occasionally on early rounds
to keep your opponents off-balance. But why do it
when you have only one or two ways of winning? For
a pure bluff to work, your opponent or opponents
must generally fold immediately. However, semi-bluff
has three ways of winning. It may win because your
opponent folds immediately, and it may also win
either because you catch a scare card that causes
your opponent to fold on a later round or because
you make the best hand.
Nevertheless, while you should usually restrict
your early-round bluffs to semi-bluffs, there is
still nothing to prevent you from trying a pure
bluff if you feel there's a good chance of getting
away with it. If you think your chances of getting
away with it are greater than the pot odds you are
getting, then you should go ahead and try it. Ante
structure we mentioned playing in a game where certain
players played too tight for the ante. There was
$10 in antes, and if these players were the only
ones in the pot, I knew I could bet $7 with absolutely
nothing and have a good chance of stealing that
$10. My pot odds in that instance were less than
1 1/2 – to - 1, but I knew I could get away
with the bluff about 60 percent of the time. So
it was a profitable play.
If you do make a pure bluff on an early round and
someone raises you, don't try to tough it out. You've
been caught. Since you have no out, you don't even
have to think about continuing. Give it up, and
get on with the next hand.
When you bluff with more cards to come, you often
get called, and then you are faced with deciding
whether or not to continue the bluff on the next
round. Thus, when you bluff with a hand that probably
can't improve to the best hand, you need to compare
your chances of getting away with it to your effective
odds if you are planning to continue betting on
future rounds even when you don't improve.
For instance, if there is $100 in the pot in a $10
- $20 game with two cards to come, you may have
to bluff twice. If you think you will bluff twice,
you are risking $40 to win $120 - the $100 in the
pot plus the $20 your opponent calls on the first
round. So when you make that first $20 bet, you
cannot think you are getting 5-to-1 from the pot.
Rather you are getting 3-to-1 ($120-to-$40). For
the play to be profitable, there must be a better
than 3-to-1 chance your opponent will fold after
the second bet. This is especially true of pure
bluffs where you have no way of winning by improving
to the best hand.
Deciding whether to continue with a semi-bluff really
depends on how the next card affects your chances
and how your opponent's card seems to have affected
his. Each individual round should be evaluated separately.
Suppose you make a semi-bluff raise in seven-card
you get called by a 9. Whether you should give up
the bluff on the next round depends on what you
catch, what your opponent catches, and also what
kind of player your opponent is. If with your A,K,5
you proceed to catch a queen suited with the king
and your opponent catches a deuce, you ought to
bet again; but if your opponent catches, let's say,
an 8 suited with the 9 and you catch a 3, give it
up. Check, and if your opponent bets, throw the
hand away. Your chances have not improved, and it
looks as if your opponent's have. He may have a
flush draw, a straight draw, or simply a pair of
9s, but whatever he has, he looks like too much
of a favorite for you to call when he bets.
It takes experience to know when to give up on a
bluff and when to pursue it. When your first bet
is called, presumably your opponent has something.
If you sense he's getting stronger and you don't
improve, give it up. If you sense he's weak and
staying weak and if you think he thinks you're strong,
continue the bluff and hope to drive him out.
|